|07 September 2012|
|Emir Preldzic and Turkey have to win both their remaining games to make sure they qualify, but even just one win could potentially be enough to see them through |
We break down the situation in Qualification Round Groups D, E and F ahead of the vital Saturday games and analyse the chances of every team that is still in the hunt for a place at EuroBasket 2013.
GROUP D [Standings]
Both Latvia and Georgia only need one win from their last two games to qualify and indeed one of them will securequalification on Saturday, as they face each other in Riga.
If Latvia defeat Georgia by any margin, they qualify either automatically or as one of the four best third-place teams.
If they beat Georgia by any margin and then go on to also beat Romania on the last day, they top the group with a 6-2 record.
If they beat Georgia by 3+ points but lose to Romania, they will qualify as first if Bosnia and Herzegovina lose their last game.
Worst case scenario: Latvia lose to both Georgia and Romania.They finish third with a 4-4 record and hope that the situation in other groups is favourable to them.
If Georgia prevail over Latvia on Saturday they qualify automatically.
If they defeat Latvia and then go on to also beat the Netherlands on the last day, they will top the group with a 6-2 record.
If they beat Latvia but lose to the Netherlands, they qualify as second regardless of whether Bosnia and Herzegovina win or lose their last game.
If they beat Latvia but beat the Netherlands, they qualify as one of the best four third-place teams.
Worst case scenario: Georgia lose to both Latvia and the Netherlands. They finish third with a 4-4 record and hope that the situation in other groups is favourable to them.
GROUP E [Standings]
Poland have already secured they cannot finish outside the top two positions and Finland, at worse, will qualify as one of the four best third-place teams so there is only one spot still available in this group at maximum.
If Belgium defeat Finland on Saturday by 37+ points and beat Albania on the final day, they qualify as second (Finland goes third).
If they defeat Finland by less than 37 and beat Albania, they qualify as one of the best four third-place teams.
If they win only one of their two remaining games, either with Finland or Albania, they finish third with a 4-4 record and have to wait for results in other groups.
Worst case scenario: Belgium lose both their games. Then if Switzerland beat Finland on the final day, Belgium finish fourth, but even if the Swiss do not win and Belgium finish third, their chances of advancing with a 3-5 record are virtually non-existent.
Switzerland have an outside chance if they defeat Finland (on the final day) while Belgium lose both their remaining games. In this case the Swiss would finish third, but with a 4-4 record and they would have to wait for favourable results elsewhere. However, they are not aided by the fact that their goal average is so low that even a huge win over Finland would possibly not be enough to improve it enough.
GROUP F [Standings]
Italy are first in the group no matter what and the Czech Republic have also qualified, their clash with Turkey will simply determine their final position. Both these teams have only their record and the best possible ranking at the Final Round to play for.
It is not easy, but at least it's straightforward for Turkey. If they win both of their remaining games, they will qualify either as second or as one of the four best third-place teams.
If they defat Portugal and then beat the Czech Republic in the last game with
18+ points, they finish second (the Czech Republic takes a qualifying third place).
If they beat Portugal and then beat the Czechs but with less than 18, they finish third, but still qualify.
If they lose either to Portugal or the Czechs, they finish at 4-4 and have to wait to see how third-place in the rest of the groups finish.
Worst case scenario: Turkey lose both their games. They still finish third but with a 3-5 record, and have no chance of qualifying.
Belarus cannot claim third place even if they win both their remaining games and Turkey lose theirs. The two teams would then finish tied at 3-5, but Turkey have the head to head advantage.